Saturday, May 31, 2008

Fuelling woes....

This was a dismal week as far as the Union Government was concerned. Suddenly, the ‘achievements’ of the last four years have become meaningless. All those guarantees for rural employment, and loan waivers, and still people go ticking you off for being compelled to pay a ‘wee’ bit more for the groceries……one wonders what would one have to do to impress these blokes! If the fuel price crisis wasn’t enough, what with the state petroleum companies literally on the deathbed, global crude prices at an all time high, and food prices zooming up faster than a ISRO satellite in space, the loss of Karnataka was the proverbial last straw. I bet that the boffins in the AICC must be scratching their heads or pulling their hair out (depending on whether they have a shiny pate or not), wondering aloud, “Can we possibly do any worse?”

Prices, and more particularly fuel prices, have always been a sensitive issue with governments; they could and have been seen to cause the downfall of many a government over the world. And in India, with our populist political class, which simply frowns on pragmatism and long-term vision (and that isn’t because nearly half of them are geriatrics who are more suited for a nursing home than for Parliament…), price hike considerations simply mean that you are left with two options: one, raise prices and commit political suicide, or let prices stay the way they are and compel the nation to undertake financial and economic suicide.

Surely suicide is a strong term here, you say? Hardly so. Let us evaluate each option more closely.

Fuel prices don’t just affect your ability to go for long drives along the Bandra Reclamation or Palm Beach Road (depending on which part of Mumbai you stay); they influence the logistics costs of transporting right about everything from tomatoes to horses to automobiles, and of course the tykes commonly known as ‘humans’. So, even an infinitesimally minute raise of just 0.000001% in the prices of automobile fuels would mean that the ‘crooked capitalists’, those ‘slaves of Mammon’, (to quote the Communists), would get yet another opportunity to raise prices for just about everything.

And we aren’t even looking at cooking fuels yet. Raise the prices for those, and you will have the populace marching to the Legislature, demanding that someone be scalped, guillotined, hung, drawn, quartered, and just for a thrill, cooked on a low flame using some expensive cooking fuel paid for from the bloke’s own pockets. And considering the propensity of our legislators to be ever so enterprising, those pockets are bound to be pretty deep, and the cooking ever so slow and tortuous (if not the cooking, the expense certainly would be…).

So let fuel prices be as they are. I mean, who on this earth wants things to be more expensive (other than those pesky capitalists, bourgeois rascals, out to make a buck at the proletariat’s expense)? So what if the state petroleum companies are going bankrupt? How dare they go broke? They have mismanaged themselves, that’s for sure……and now they want us to raise fuel prices to cover up their ineptitude? NO SIR! We may be stupid and impractical, buffoons and idiots of the highest order, conniving and snivelling rats, but we would be damned if we were to allow you to do what is right for you.

On a more serious note (and I want to end this blog with this), the energy crisis is finally looking the world in the face. Oil producers may be profiting from this sudden increase in global prices, but in the end, resentment against them is also increasing manifold. And where there is resentment, there is a sense of being betrayed, a modern day Dolchstoßlegende, and the last time such sentiments arose, calamity (read war) struck the land. Oil importers need to comprehend the fragile nature of their existence, being wholly dependent on the fuel being brought in. The time to face the energy crisis is now.

We need to understand that a government of the people does not seek to mollycoddle its people; it seeks to protect them, yes, but even a mother sometimes feels the need to punish her children. She doesn’t love them any less, but the beating is for their own good. So it is with fuel prices.

If we do not raise these prices now (or do something to ensure that we aren’t too way off the global price mark), we may end up endangering the health of the very enterprises that are meant to safeguard our future. Oil prices may drop in the near future, and consequently domestic prices also will drop. It is time we evaluated whether we will bear the prick of the injection now, or suffer the agony of an amputation later on. The choice is ours and ours alone to make. So choose wisely.

10 comments:

Ashish Agarwal said...

Agreed. Prices need to be raised, but the Government has been failing in the realms of both oil conservation and alternate energy policies.
You just don't hear anything of oil conservation, with many Government vehicles being the worst in terms of bad mileage; with regards to alternate energy measures - compare the difference between when oil was $60, and now $130, and yet you don't hear the Government talking anything about alternate energy development.

Ashish Agarwal said...

On a different note, I am trying to get a system whereby writings on different topics such as social issues, consumer affairs, politics, and governance are all grouped together on this blog:
http://www.indiapoliticalblog.com/
Would you be interested on contributing to this blog ?

A Mangled Soul said...

I think, in a long term perspective, Ashish has rightly captured the essence of the point.

We are undoubtedly facing an impending doom, coz we clamour for Oil with a notion that its supplies will continue for times immemorial.

The world had better bite the bullet and stop subsidising oil, else we only be accelerating (ironical word to use, given the oil crisis :) ) in our journey to the cataclysmic end.

MD said...

Its very true that the public memory is very short. And this in itself is like a double edged-sword. People seem to have forgotten the good the government did in all these years, but they have also forgotten the lapses in law.
Good blog,Reddy, keep it up.

Aarti Ramanan said...

Oil has always been a major commodity of import. with global oil prices rising, the govt. can only either limit the consumption/supply or hike the prices.

though long pleasure drives may still be a thumbs up with a few, majority of the Indian population still cannot afford a Rs.10 price hike on petrol and Rs.5 price hike on diesel. The govt. also plans to include an oil surcharge on the income tax to waive off the import and excise duties for the oil and petroleum companies.
And oil has always been termed 'expensive', even in the days of $60 a barrel and even now at $130.

But why should this be a reason for the downfall of the govt.? The budget is already in favour of the common man and the govt. will want this to be in their favour too, if it were in their hands. no new govt. can take it any other way. n ppl do understand this.

Mr. BPCL, u'd know best :)

Aarti Ramanan said...

I have commented on 'I await' of december 2007 and also on a few of the May posts

Aarti Ramanan said...

Another point.

The oil cos will not breakeven even after the hike. Their financial statements still show red!!! And the shareholders monies are at stake.All because crude oil prices are decided by the govt., unlike other products.

One option: the govt can divest their holdings from these PSUs and open them for private players (like in the US nd the like) or delist these cos completely.
The tradeoff will be in the form of spiralling oil prices, if left in the hands of private cos...

Vivek said...

Ashish: Expecting an Indian government to start thinking on practical lines is like expecting to seeing the sun at midnight. Pragmatism has never been, and will perhaps never be, one of the stronger points of the Indian State. However, I concur with your view that we need to seriously start thinking about oil conservation and alternate energy development. The time is ripe, and behoves us to act upon it.

Vinay: Completely agree with you, dude....

Mayuri: I may be biased against this government, but frankly they are enjoying the fruits of the labours of their predecessors. They were equally content to deny the NDA the glory of the economic upsurge around 2002-2003, claiming that had it not been for Manmohan Singh's policies in 1991, this day would not have dawned. They seem to forget that had it not been for the same Congress' policies for the previous four decades, the country would not have faced the shameful state of affairs in 1991. The UPA deserves to fall, not just because it's impractical, but because it has failed to deliver on its promises. Aam aadmi ke saath, my foot!

Aarti: The fact remains that economic suicide is never a good thing when it comes to a long term viewpoint. Populism is good for a year or two, but after that the shoe begins to bite. That the oil companies wouldn't breakeven even after the hike is true, but that doesn't mean that the government is justified in allowing them to become bankrupt.
You state that the government can divest its holdings in these PSUs. With deficits of 200 lakh crores, can you possibly imagine anyone seeing these companies as anything but as white elephants? So long as prices continue to be administered by boffins and not by market forces, these companies will continue to be in the red.
Besides, oil security is a major concern in today's times, and private players (and I know this sounds childish) cannot be trusted to let go of commercial considerations in times of national crises. You see only the hikes, but not the occasional reductions.

It is fashionable to say the government should get out. Privatisation is not the panacea to our problems; let us evaluate more professionalism as a better option.

Aarti Ramanan said...

It still is debatable whether fuel prices need to be governed by political forces or could be left to the market forces.
Even if the oil companies had been taken over by private companies completely, the demand-supply forces would deter them from totally raising fuel prices just to break-even.
Of course, leaving to the Govt would definitely be more people-friendly.

The occasional fuel price reductions do not benefit the companies. They are just to make the prices more favourable to ppl in the short-run. They are soon followed by rising prices again.

Aarti Ramanan said...

I am not advocating privatisation but it has always been in favour of growth of the Indian economy and has never been a cause of a setback.

Perhaps, divesting their holdings would bring in more players into the business. Again competition would deter spiralling prices...
as it has happened in Indian aviation... (though not all businesses run alike)

Its all a game of snakes and ladders...

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